Planning Marketing in a Volatile Market: The Three-Scenario Method
- Mónica Almeida
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
Updated: 5 hours ago
All Angolan marketinh plans face the same challenge, and it's not competition: it's volatility. Exchange rates fluctuate, causing import costs to skyrocket; purchasing power swings, and consumers pull back; liquidity tightens, and budgets set in january are slashed by May. Faced with this, many companies conclude that planning is "not worth it here". The correct conclusion is the opposite: in volatile markets, planning is more valuable — as long as you plan for volatility, not despite it.
I will laigh again at a scenario where I made a marketing plan and presented it do the Administrato, and the financial departament had immense difficulty readinh the "ad-hoce" line in almost every item... and even callet it an "add-on". But I laugh with sadness, mainly because of the company's potential and not understanding that "ad-hoc" are part of the plans, especially in markets like ours (Angola). But, let's get back to what matters.
The Three-Scenario Method
Based-Scenario (The probable): The complete plan, with the approved budget and agreed key objectives.
Contraction Scenario (The defensive): If the budget drops by 30%, what gets cut first and wht is protect at all cost? Deciding this in January, when things are calm, prevent blind cuts in May — where typically qgat builds (brand, relationship) is cut, and what is merely visible (events, giveaways) is kept.
Opportunity Scenario (The offensive): If a competitor stumbles, if exchange rates are favorable, if extra funds appear — where does an additional kwanza yield the most? Tjose with ready answers seize opportunities that others take months to discuss.
Rules Accompanying the Method
Review quarterly (the annual plan is the direction; the quarter is the commitment), protect long-cycle investments (brands are built precisely in the years when others disappear — and consumer memory rewards those who stay), and index what can be indexed in supplier contracts, so that not all volatility turns into a surprise.
The plan is not a promise that the year will go as written — it is the assurance that, no matter what happens, the company decides instead of merely reacting. In Luanda, this inot just management technique; it is a competitive advante.
Planos com cenários e indicadores são o formato standard dos projectos made.
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